The return of El Niño in 2024–2025 is reshaping global weather in powerful and often disruptive ways. This naturally occurring climate pattern, driven by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is influencing everything from rainfall and drought to wildfire risk and food production.
So, how exactly is El Niño impacting the planet right now?
1. Rising Global Temperatures
El Niño events typically lead to a short-term boost in global temperatures, and the current one is no exception.
- According to NASA and NOAA, the El Niño of 2024–2025 is contributing to record-breaking global warmth, pushing average temperatures closer to — or above — the critical 1.5°C threshold.
- February 2025 was one of the warmest months ever recorded, with widespread heat anomalies across the tropics and mid-latitudes.
2. Droughts in Southeast Asia and Australia
- Countries like Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines are experiencing reduced rainfall, increased evaporation, and longer dry seasons.
- In Australia, rainfall has decreased significantly in the eastern regions, leading to crop stress and heightened bushfire risks.
ECMWF models show sustained dry conditions well into mid-2025, especially in monsoon-dependent areas.
3. Flooding and Storms in South America
While parts of the world dry out, western South America is grappling with the opposite.
- Peru and Ecuador have faced widespread flooding, coastal erosion, and even mudslides caused by warmer ocean waters fueling intense rainfall.
- Local governments have declared weather emergencies in multiple regions since late 2024.
4. More Intense Fire Seasons
- El Niño conditions often lead to increased wildfire activity, particularly in South America, Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia.
- According to NASA FIRMS, active fire alerts have surged in Brazil, Bolivia, and parts of Central Africa.
- The combination of heat and dryness creates ideal ignition conditions for both natural and human-caused fires.
5. Shifting Jet Streams and Polar Patterns
El Niño is also influencing the jet stream, altering storm tracks and weather systems across the Northern Hemisphere.
- North America is seeing warmer, wetter winters in the southern U.S., while parts of Canada remain unusually dry.
- In Europe, there’s a notable increase in storm frequency and irregular winter patterns, with colder-than-average snaps in unexpected regions.
6. Impact on Agriculture and Food Security
With changes in rainfall and temperature, agricultural systems are under pressure:
- Rice and wheat production is threatened in Asia due to heatwaves and water shortages.
- Coffee and cacao farms in Latin America are experiencing increased climate stress from erratic rainfall and fungal outbreaks.
The FAO and WFP have already issued alerts for potential food shortages in vulnerable regions.
7. What Happens Next?
Current models suggest El Niño will gradually weaken by late 2025, but its after-effects could persist well into 2026, especially in climate-sensitive zones.
Monitoring is ongoing via platforms like NASA Earthdata Worldview and ECMWF’s seasonal forecasts.
El Niño is not just a Pacific Ocean event — it’s a planetary climate driver with widespread consequences. From deadly floods to dangerous heatwaves, the 2024–2025 El Niño is another stark reminder of how interconnected and fragile our climate systems are.